Dry Conditions Today, Showers Return Wednesday

General Overview: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US OVER THE COMING DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO ERUPT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND OHIO VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. THE WEST WILL REMAIN UNDER A PRONOUNCED WARM TEMPERATURE ANOMALY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.

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EAST: A complex and active weather pattern will dominate the eastern United States through the forecast period. Early in the period, a low pressure system situated near the Mid-Atlantic coast will be accompanied by a warm front extending to the south and a cold front sweeping through the region. This setup will support rain and thunderstorm activity across the Southeast and Gulf Coast, with the heaviest thunderstorm coverage focused along and ahead of the frontal boundaries from the Carolinas southward through Florida and into the Gulf Coast states. Rain will also be widespread across the Great Lakes portions of the Northeast as the system tracks northeastward. As the period progresses into Thursday and Friday, the coastal low will shift northeastward and become occluded, with the associated precipitation gradually exiting the region. A high pressure system building in from the north will bring drier and cooler conditions to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Friday, though rain and thunderstorm chances will linger along the Southeast coast and Florida peninsula. By Saturday, a broad cold front sweeping eastward will bring a renewed round of thunderstorm activity to the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, with rain coverage expanding across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast as well. 

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1-3: Temperatures will run 3 to 9°F below normal across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Near-normal temperatures are expected across the Southeast and Gulf Coast.

– Days 4-6: Below-normal temperatures of 3 to 6°F will persist across the Ohio Valley and portions of the interior Northeast early in this period, but a gradual moderation is expected by Day 6 as above-normal readings begin to spread northward across the region.

– Days 7-10: A notable warming trend will take hold across the East, with temperatures running 6 to 12°F above normal from the Mid-Atlantic through the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes by the end of the period.

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CENTRAL: The central United States will be the focal point for some of the most impactful weather of the forecast period. A low pressure system tracking through the central Rockies and into the Central Plains will serve as the primary weather-maker early in the period. Thunderstorms will erupt across portions of the Central and Southern Plains on Wednesday, with activity spreading northeastward into the Midwest through Thursday. The combination of moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico and strong upper-level support will favor organized and potentially severe thunderstorm activity across the Central Plains and Midwest. By Friday, a cold front will be pushing through the region, with thunderstorms continuing to fire ahead of it from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes. The most significant and widespread thunderstorm outbreak of the period is expected by Saturday, when a broad area of thunderstorm activity will extend from the Central Plains northward through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes, covering a large portion of the central United States. Heavy rainfall will be a concern with this activity, and the potential for severe weather cannot be ruled out. Behind the front, drier and cooler conditions will return to the Northern Plains and northern Rockies.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1-3: Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal across most of the Central Plains and Midwest. A modest below-normal signal of 3 to 6°F will be noted across portions of the Upper Midwest and North Central region. Slightly below-normal readings are also possible across parts of South Central.

– Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures of 3 to 9°F will build across the Central Plains and Midwest, with the warmest anomalies focused across the central and southern portions of the region. The Northern Plains will remain near or slightly above normal.

– Days 7-10: A broad above-normal temperature regime will encompass much of the central United States, with anomalies of 3 to 9°F above normal from the Central Plains into the Midwest. A pocket of below-normal temperatures may linger across the Northern Plains into early next week before moderating.

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WEST: The western United States will be dominated by an impressive and persistent warm temperature anomaly through much of the forecast period, particularly across the Desert Southwest, Great Basin, and Intermountain West. A low pressure system tracking along the Pacific Coast will bring rain and thunderstorm activity to the Pacific Northwest and Northern California early in the period, with snow continuing across the higher elevations of the northern Rockies and Cascades. Mixed precipitation will be possible across portions of the northern Rockies and higher terrain of the Intermountain West as this system moves through. By Thursday and into Friday, another low pressure system will develop along the California coast, bringing additional precipitation chances to the Pacific Coast states. Snow will remain possible across the higher elevations of the northern Rockies and Cascades throughout the period. The Desert Southwest and Southern Rockies will see isolated thunderstorm activity at times, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours as the active pattern continues.

Temperature Anomalies:

– Days 1-3: A very pronounced warm temperature anomaly will be in place across the West, with departures of 6 to 15°F or more above normal across the Desert Southwest, Great Basin, and Intermountain West. The Pacific Northwest will be near to slightly above normal.

– Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures will persist across the West, though the magnitude of the anomaly will begin to moderate somewhat. Readings of 3 to 9°F above normal are expected across much of the region, with the warmest departures focused across the Intermountain West and Central Rockies.

– Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures will continue across much of the West, with anomalies of 3 to 6°F above normal. The Pacific Northwest may see a brief return to near or slightly below-normal temperatures as a frontal system moves through late in the period.

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TROPICAL: No tropical cyclone activity is expected across either the Atlantic or Pacific basins during the next seven days.