Drought Areas Grow, But Getting Rain Chances

In the Midwest, a few showers moved through the east on Tuesday and Wednesday, but much of the region has been drier so far this week. That changes as a front moves through the west on Thursday and east on Friday. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur, keeping soil moisture high in most areas and improving it across the Ohio Valley. An additional storm will roll through on Monday into early Tuesday, bringing more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some additional showers may continue later next week across the south as a system passes by.

In the Northern Plains, a system moved in on Wednesday and started to produce scattered showers. A batch of heavy rain is turning to snow in eastern Montana as the system moves north into Canada on Thursday. Though the heavy precipitation will follow the system northward, scattered showers will continue into the weekend. A system will pass by to the south on Sunday into Monday, but spread showers northward into at least the Dakotas. Some moderate precipitation will be possible with that system. Drought areas across the south and west are getting some precipitation, which is welcome, but much more is needed.

In the Central and Southern Plains, some showers moved across Texas, but much of the region has been dry this week, causing drought to grow again in the west. That is changing with a more active weather pattern through next week. A cold front moving through on Thursday will produce scattered thunderstorms and potential severe weather. A few showers will be possible across the north on Friday, and stronger thunderstorms will develop in the southeast on Saturday. But a bigger system will move across the north on Sunday with widespread and much-needed rainfall in and around Nebraska. Some showers may linger for Monday and Tuesday, but another system is forecast to move across the south for Wednesday and Thursday. Some decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms is forecast even across the southwest, which is in dire need of rainfall.

In the Delta, it was largely dry this week and drought continues to grow. However, the region will be getting multiple opportunities for precipitation through next week. A front will move through on Friday into Saturday with scattered showers, especially across the north. A system will bring another front through on Monday and Tuesday, and the region may get its best chances for widespread precipitation as the front stalls and another system passes through later next week. Rainfall deficits are extremely large, but some progress may be made in reducing drought next week.

In the Southeast U.S., it was dry this week as drought continues to grow and deepen. Rainfall deficits are extremely large in much of the region and none of the region is drought-free. There will be some opportunities for precipitation through next week, offering some chances for reducing the drought at least slightly. A front will likely bring through some scattered showers on Saturday. Another front may do so on Tuesday as well. But that front may linger through midweek, and a system is forecast to move along it with potential for widespread precipitation later next week and weekend.

In the Western U.S., a system moved from California northeast through the northern Rockies this week, bringing some areas of heavy precipitation. Much of this came after the data cutoff for the U.S. Drought Monitor, which saw drought grow on this week’s update. Improvement should be expected on next week’s update. Another system will slide across the south this weekend and bring through scattered showers and another is likely near the Mexican border for midweek. Any precipitation would be welcome across the south, which is tough to do at this time of year. Drought reduction may be possible, but snow drought was historic this past winter and many area lakes, reservoirs, and rivers are suffering low volumes.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com