Drier With Isolated Storm Chances

GENERAL OVERVIEW: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL UNFOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS TRACK ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THREATS INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO THAT REGION ON FRIDAY. THE WEST WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ONLY ISOLATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST.

EAST:

A low pressure system tracking near the Mid-Atlantic coast is bringing rain and thunderstorms to much of the eastern seaboard on Friday, with severe thunderstorms possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states including Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and into southern New England. A cold front extends southward from this low, helping to focus precipitation from the Carolinas northward through the Northeast. Rain and thunderstorms are widespread across the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and Ohio Valley as well. Mixed precipitation is noted across portions of northern New England in association with the frontal system.

By Saturday evening, the cold front will have pushed offshore along much of the Northeast coast, with a warm front lifting northward into New England. Rain will continue across portions of the Northeast and into the Great Lakes region, with thunderstorm activity persisting across the Southeast and into the Gulf Coast states. The low pressure center will be positioned near the New England coast, with rain continuing across much of the region.

Into Sunday and Monday, the frontal boundary will shift, with a new cold front pushing into the eastern states. Rain and thunderstorms will continue across the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and into the Mid-Atlantic. By Monday evening, an occluded front will be draped across the Northeast, with rain continuing from the Mid-Atlantic through New England. Thunderstorms will persist across the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast. By Tuesday evening, a low pressure system near the Mid-Atlantic will have a warm front extending eastward, with rain and thunderstorms continuing across the Southeast, Ohio Valley, and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures will be running well above normal across the Northeast and New England, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal, particularly across northern New England and into New York on Day 1. The Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley will also see above-normal temperatures, generally 3 to 6 degrees above normal. By Day 3, above-normal readings of 3 to 6 degrees persist across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, while a slight cool signal emerges across portions of the Great Lakes region.
-Days 4-6: A cooling trend will develop across the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, with temperatures trending near to slightly below normal. The Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will remain near to slightly above normal. By Day 6, below-normal temperatures become more confined to the Great Lakes and upper Midwest fringe of the East region, while the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast trend near normal.
-Days 7-10: Temperatures across the East will trend near to slightly above normal for most areas, with only isolated pockets of slight below-normal readings near the Great Lakes. The Northeast coast may see a slight above-normal signal lingering through this period.

CENTRAL:

A broad area of rain and thunderstorms is ongoing across much of the central and southern Plains, the Midwest, and into the Mississippi Valley on Friday, associated with multiple low pressure centers and frontal boundaries. The most significant threat on Friday is the potential for severe thunderstorms across portions of the Mid-Atlantic fringe, but the central region itself is seeing widespread rain and thunderstorm activity from Texas northward through the Plains and into the Midwest.

The most notable hazard for the Central region arrives on Saturday, when severe thunderstorms are possible across a broad area covering portions of Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, with the threat of heavy rain and flash flooding also highlighted across portions of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and into western Tennessee. This represents the most significant weather threat of the forecast period for the Central region. Rain and thunderstorms will be widespread from Texas northward through the central Plains and into the Midwest and Great Lakes.

By Sunday evening, a cold front will sweep through the central Plains, pushing the thunderstorm activity eastward. Rain will continue across portions of the central and southern Plains, with a low pressure system near the Texas-Mexico border. High pressure will build into the central Plains behind the front. By Monday evening, the cold front will have pushed into the Gulf Coast region, with a low pressure center near the Texas coast. Rain and thunderstorms will continue across portions of the southern Plains and into the Gulf Coast states. By Tuesday evening, the frontal boundary will be well to the east, and conditions will begin to dry out across much of the central Plains and Midwest, though rain and thunderstorms will linger across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the central Plains and Midwest will be near normal on Day 1, with the most notable anomalies confined to the northern and eastern portions of the region. By Day 3, a significant cold intrusion will develop across the northern and central Plains, with temperatures running 6 to more than 12 degrees below normal across portions of Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska, and South Dakota. The southern Plains will remain near normal.
-Days 4-6: Below-normal temperatures will expand and deepen across the central Plains, Midwest, and into the western Great Lakes, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees below normal across portions of Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, and Missouri. This cold pattern will persist through Day 6, though it will begin to moderate slightly by the end of this period.
-Days 7-10: The below-normal temperature signal across the central Plains and Midwest will gradually diminish, with most areas trending back toward near-normal readings by Days 9 and 10. The southern Plains will remain near normal throughout this period.

WEST:

The western United States will remain relatively quiet over the forecast period, with only isolated precipitation chances across portions of the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, and the Southwest. On Friday, a low pressure system is located over the Great Basin, with another low off the California coast. Isolated rain and thunderstorm activity is noted across portions of the Southwest and into the southern Rockies. Mixed precipitation is possible across portions of the northern Rockies and into the Pacific Northwest in association with a frontal boundary.

By Saturday, a cold front will push through the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies, bringing rain and some mixed precipitation to portions of Idaho and Montana. Isolated rain and thunderstorm activity will continue across the Southwest and southern Rockies. A low pressure system will remain near the California-Nevada border area. By Sunday and into Monday, the frontal activity will shift eastward, and the West will see a gradual drying trend, though isolated rain and thunderstorm chances will persist across portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Southwest through the early part of next week.

Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across California and the Southwest will be running above normal, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal across portions of California on Day 1. The Great Basin and Southwest will also see above-normal readings. In contrast, portions of Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado will be below normal, with anomalies of 3 to 6 degrees below normal. By Day 3, the below-normal signal expands significantly across the northern and central Rockies, with temperatures running 6 to more than 12 degrees below normal across Wyoming, Colorado, and into Montana and the Dakotas. California and the Southwest will remain above normal.
-Days 4-6: The Pacific Northwest will warm significantly, with temperatures running well above normal — 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal across Washington and Oregon by Days 4 and 5. California and the Southwest will continue to see above-normal temperatures. The Intermountain West and northern Rockies will trend back toward near normal by Day 6, with the above-normal signal becoming more dominant across the Pacific Coast states.
-Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures will be the dominant signal across the West, particularly across the Great Basin, Intermountain West, and into the Southwest, with anomalies of 3 to 6 degrees above normal. The Pacific Northwest will trend back toward near normal by Days 9 and 10. Most of the West will see near to above-normal temperatures through the end of the forecast period.

TROPICAL:

A disturbance is being monitored in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The development potential for this system over the next seven days is considered low, with less than a 40 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation. No other tropical activity is expected across the Atlantic basin or the eastern Pacific during this period.