Drier Conditions Continue

**General Overview:**

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD OVER THE COMING DAYS AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACTS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREATS INCLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL EXPANDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. HEAVY SNOW REMAINS A CONCERN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTERIOR NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRING RAIN, MIXED PRECIPITATION, AND SNOW THREATS TO THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. A BROAD COLD PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH CENTRAL REGION AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

—

**EAST:** The early part of the period features an active storm track that will have significant implications for the eastern United States. On Monday, a low pressure system situated near the Great Lakes is driving a broad swath of thunderstorm activity from the Ohio Valley southward through the Tennessee Valley and into the Deep South, with rain extending along the Eastern Seaboard as a separate coastal low lingers offshore. By Tuesday, the storm system tracks eastward, with thunderstorm activity — including the threat for severe thunderstorms — pushing into the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, and portions of the Southeast. Rain and thunderstorms will be widespread across the Gulf Coast and into the lower Mississippi Valley as well.

The most impactful event for the East arrives Wednesday into Thursday, as a low pressure system consolidates along the Mid-Atlantic coast and intensifies. This coastal system will bring a significant rain and mixed precipitation event to the region. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected from the Gulf Coast northward through the Carolinas and into the Mid-Atlantic. To the north and west of the storm track, a transition to mixed precipitation and snow is expected across the interior Northeast and New England, with the potential for meaningful snow accumulations across portions of northern New England. Freezing rain and mixed precipitation will be possible in the transitional zone across the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. By Thursday, the low continues to pull away to the northeast, with lingering rain and snow showers across New England and the Great Lakes region.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– Days 1-3: Temperatures will be running above normal across much of the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic, with anomalies of 6°F or more above average in some areas. The immediate coastal Mid-Atlantic will also see slightly above-normal readings early. Near-normal to slightly below-normal temperatures are expected across the Northeast.

– Days 4-6: A notable warm signal persists across the Northeast and Great Lakes early in this period, with anomalies of 6 to locally 12°F above normal, particularly across northern New England and the Great Lakes. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic gradually return toward near-normal readings as the coastal system departs and cooler air filters in from the north.

– Days 7-10: A significant cold pattern develops and spreads across much of the eastern half of the country. Below-normal temperatures, ranging from 3 to 9°F below average, are expected from the Great Lakes southward through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and eventually into the Southeast and Gulf Coast. The anomalies become most pronounced across the South Central and Southeast regions by the end of the period.

—

**CENTRAL:** The central United States will be at the epicenter of the most significant weather threats early in the forecast period. On Sunday into Monday, a potent low pressure system is tracking through the Central Plains, bringing a wide variety of hazardous weather. **Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Central Plains, including portions of Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, and into the lower Missouri Valley**, with the threat for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Critical fire weather conditions are also a concern across portions of the Southern Plains, including western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, where dry and windy conditions could allow fires to spread rapidly. Meanwhile, heavy snow is possible across the Northern Plains and into the Dakotas, where a wintry mix including snow and mixed precipitation is expected on the northern side of the storm system.

By Tuesday, the low pressure tracks into the Mississippi Valley, and **heavy rain and flash flooding become the primary concerns** across the central Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, and into the Tennessee Valley. Severe thunderstorms remain possible from the lower Mississippi Valley northward into the central Midwest. The cold front sweeps eastward through the region Tuesday into Wednesday, with mixed precipitation and snow continuing across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest in the wake of the system. A high pressure system building in behind the front will usher in a reinforcing shot of cold air across the North Central region by midweek.

By Thursday, a new low pressure system develops across the Southern Plains, bringing another round of rain and thunderstorms to the South Central region, with snow spreading across a broad area from the Central Rockies through the Central and Northern Plains.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– Days 1-3: A sharp temperature contrast defines the central U.S. during this period. The North Central region, including the Dakotas and Montana, will experience temperatures running 6 to more than 12°F below normal. Meanwhile, the South Central region, including Oklahoma and much of Texas, will see temperatures running 6 to locally 12°F above normal, fueling the severe weather and fire weather threats.

– Days 4-6: Cold air dominates the North Central states, with below-normal anomalies of 6 to 12°F persisting across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The South Central region moderates toward near-normal readings, though some above-normal anomalies linger across the southern tier.

– Days 7-10: The cold pattern intensifies and expands southward across the central U.S. Temperatures are expected to run well below normal from the Central Rockies and Central Plains southward through the South Central region, with the most pronounced anomalies — exceeding 12°F below normal — centered over the Southern Rockies and southern Plains. This represents a significant cold intrusion for late April into early May.

—

**WEST:** The western United States will contend with an active precipitation pattern through much of the forecast period, driven by a persistent low pressure system and a series of disturbances affecting the region. On Monday, a low pressure system centered over the northern Rockies and Intermountain West is producing widespread snow and mixed precipitation across the northern and central Rockies, with rain and thunderstorms mixing in at lower elevations. The Pacific Northwest is also seeing rain and thunderstorm activity during this time. Heavy snow is possible at higher elevations across the northern and central Rockies, with mixed precipitation at the lower passes.

Through Tuesday and Wednesday, the precipitation pattern continues across the Northwest and Rockies, with snow and mixed precipitation persisting across the higher terrain. Thunderstorm activity is also present across portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. By Thursday, a new round of precipitation develops across the central and southern Rockies, with snow and mixed precipitation spreading across a broad area from the northern Rockies southward through the central Rockies and into the Four Corners region.

**Temperature Anomalies:**

– Days 1-3: Below-normal temperatures are widespread across the West, with the most significant cold anomalies — ranging from 6 to 12°F below normal — concentrated across the northern Rockies, Intermountain West, and portions of the Pacific Northwest. The Southwest sees near-normal to slightly below-normal readings.

– Days 4-6: The cold anomalies across the northern Rockies and Intermountain West gradually moderate, though readings remain below normal across portions of the region. The Pacific Coast sees near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures, with a warming trend beginning to develop across the Pacific Northwest by the end of this period.

– Days 7-10: A notable warming trend takes hold across much of the West. Above-normal temperatures, ranging from 3 to 9°F above average, spread across the Pacific Northwest, Intermountain West, and into the Southwest. The Pacific Northwest sees some of the most pronounced warm anomalies during this period, signaling a significant pattern change from the cold regime that dominated earlier in the forecast.

—

**TROPICAL:** The tropical outlook across both the Atlantic and Pacific basins is quiet at this time. No tropical cyclone activity is expected during the next seven days in either basin, and there are no active disturbances being monitored for development. Conditions remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation across all monitored areas.