Cotton Suffers Tuesday’s Hook

After a strong Monday recovery, the cotton market hooked lower Tuesday morning. One fundamental driver of Monday was the news the Chinese agreed to raise their U.S. agricultural purchases over the next few seasons to a four-year high. Still, some pragmatic traders are wary of China’s previously failed promises, hence prices have backed off Tuesday morning.

Monday afternoon, USDA issued its weekly Crop Progress report. Their data showed 41% of the 2026 cotton crop has been planted. That pace is very close to the historical flow for this time of year. Presently, Texas is 34% planted, in line with the five-year average, while Georgia is 38% planted versus a five-year average of 41%, with Arkansas at 66%, and Mississippi at 58% complete.

Overnight, crude oil is lower as President Trump has postponed a planned military strike on Iran following requests from key Middle Eastern leaders. Monday afternoon, Trump said he shelved plans for a “scheduled attack on Iran tomorrow” following requests from the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as Iran has given its latest peace proposal to Pakistan. 

This Thursday, USDA will release its weekly export sales report. Last week’s numbers revealed a mere 47,000 bales sold. It was a marketing-year-low amount. 

Chart support for December cotton stands at 82.20 cents and 80.70 cents, with resistance around 85.30 cents and 86.70 cents. Tuesday morning’s estimated volume is 17,402 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.