Cotton Lower Ahead of WASDE Report

The cotton market is moderately lower, as traders position themselves for Friday’s supply-demand update and the sharp reversal in the energy complex.

Crude oil is sharply lower this morning as news that several Middle Eastern states will supposedly meet with Iran over the future of the Strait of Hormuz. Thursday, prices in the energy complex post near record highs.

An updated CPI (consumer inflation) report will be out Friday at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Given Thursday’s slightly higher PPI number, CPI will confirm, or not, the presence of “sticky” inflation in the U.S. economy. Thus, the Federal Reserve may be prompted to hike interest rates. The central banks will meet next week.

Weekly export sales were released Friday with the following numbers:

“Net sales of Upland totaling 73,900 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for Pakistan (19,400 RB), Vietnam (17,500 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), Mexico (11,900 RB, including decreases of 200 RB), Bangladesh (10,500 RB), and India (9,500 RB, including decreases of 6,700 RB). Total net sales of 2,500 RB for 2027/2028 were for Mexico. Exports of 177,800 RB were primarily to Vietnam (50,300 RB), India (47,000 RB), Pakistan (17,600 RB), Honduras (11,800 RB), and Mexico (11,000 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 10,000 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for India (6,600 RB), Peru (1,900 RB), Thailand (500 RB), Bangladesh (400 RB), and Italy (400 RB). Exports of 5,200 RB were to India (2,400 RB), Pakistan (1,700 RB), Thailand (700 RB), Peru (300 RB), and South Korea (200 RB).”

At noon EDT Friday, USDA will release its monthly supply-demand update. For that report, the average trade guess calls for U.S. 2026/27 production to be 13.19 million bales, down from the previous 13.61 million bales. Exports are expected to be at 12.14 million bales versus 12.30 million bales seen in August. Domestic stocks are expected at 3.79 million bales versus the prior numbers of 4.00 million bales.

Lastly at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitment of Traders numbers. The last report had the managed-money funds as net-buyers of 12,000 positions. Their buying action swelled the overall net-long carry to 107,936 contracts. Their record carry was 108,788 contracts.

For Friday, close-in support for December cotton stands at 86.10 cents and 85.50 cents, with resistance around 89.00 cents and 89.55 cents. Friday morning’s estimated volume is 13,260 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.