Cotton Hits The Skids

The cotton market is sharply lower Thursday morning after major overnight selling emerged. The market was already nervous as Wednesday it posted a new contract high, but then barely closed positive. Now, traders will be keen on Thursday’s export sales, the Trump/Xi outcome, and Friday’s CFTC update for future price influences.

USDA just issued its weekly export sales data with the following numbers: “Net sales of Upland totaling 47,700 RB for 2025/2026–a marketing-year low. Sales were off 61% weekly and down 66% on the four-week average.  Increases primarily for Vietnam (31,800 RB, including 500 RB switched from Japan and decreases of 1,200 RB), Indonesia (4,100 RB, including 1,300 RB switched from Japan), Turkey (2,700 RB), Pakistan (2,700 RB, including 700 RB switched from Vietnam and decreases of 800 RB), and Thailand (2,300 RB), were offset by reductions for Japan (1,900 RB). Net sales of 29,700 RB for 2026/2027 primarily for Vietnam (13,800 RB), Mexico (8,800 RB), Bangladesh (4,400 RB), Guatemala (2,200 RB), and Indonesia (1,500 RB), were offset by reductions for Pakistan (2,200 RB). Exports of 290,300 RB were down 11 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (84,100 RB), Turkey (37,600 RB), Bangladesh (27,100 RB), China (26,500 RB), and Pakistan (22,600 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 9,300 RB for 2025/2026 were down 19 percent from the previous week and 51 percent from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for India (5,900 RB), Peru (2,300 RB), Pakistan (400 RB), Thailand (300 RB), and Japan (200 RB). Net sales of 7,900 RB for 2026/2027 were reported for China (7,800 RB) and Japan (100 RB). Exports of 12,100 RB were down 18 percent from the previous week, but up 12 percent from the prior four-week average. The destinations were primarily to India (5,400 RB), China (2,900 RB), Vietnam (2,300 RB), Pakistan (900 RB), and Japan (400 RB).”

The Trump/Xi trade meeting is taking place in Beijing with much pomp and ceremony. The two sides have much to discuss including tariffs, Taiwan, Iran, rare earths, and U.S. agricultural purchases. Most analysts have low expectations on any major outcome. 

Also on Friday, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders numbers. Last week, the managed-money funds bought some 12,000 positions, lifting their net-long carry to 51,184 contracts. The all-time record bullish record stands at 108,788 contracts.

Chart support for July cotton stands at 83.05 cents and 82.60 cents, with resistance around 88.10 cents and 88.50 cents. Thursday morning’s estimated volume is 41,219 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.