Cotton Higher Monday

The cotton market is starting off mid-July with higher prices as growing conditions and rainfall remain sporadic and unsure for much of the central and western U.S. Additionally, the managed funds increased their bullish position. Overnight, the Chicago grains are higher based on weather concerns. And, lastly, the situation in the Middle East has become much more intense and deadly.

Last Friday the CFTC updated its Commitments of Traders report. It showed the managed-money fund, per Tuesday’s close, has net-bought 10,578 positions, increasing their already bullish carry to 49,684 contracts. 

Monday, supposedly, China will auction bales from her state reserves. This move is being done to rotate certain seasonal storage and to feed her own textile mills. 

Also, Monday at 4 p.m. EDT, USDA will update the condition of the 2026 crop. Of late, the good-to-excellent readings have been slipping. The highest point was 54%, but last week it was 44% for the national crop.

Overnight, the energy complex was materially higher amid the loss of three U.S. service people and the unrelenting U.S. response. The United States has been bombing Iran for eight consecutive nights.  

The 6- to 10-day weather forecast (July 22-26) shows much above-normal temperatures for Texas, while the Delta and the Southeast will experience above-normal readings. Rain-wise, Texas looks to have normal chances, while the Southeast should have slightly above-normal odds. 

Chart support for December cotton stands at 77.75 cents and 77.20 cents, with resistance around 80.50 cents and 81.10 cents. Monday morning’s estimated volume is 10,680 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.