Cotton Has Mid-Month Jitters

Overnight the cotton market posted a new, but tiny, contract high, and is quietly lower Monday morning. To some degree, traders are having the jitters over renewed U.S./Iran fighting, plus improving U.S. weather. This week, traders will see the May WASDE, as well as the Trump/Xi meeting.

Last Friday the CFTC issued its latest Commitments of Traders update. The numbers showed managed-money funds bought some 12,800 positions, lifting their net-long carry to 51,184 contracts. For context, their all-time record bullish position was 108,788 contracts.

Last week’s U.S. Drought Monitor did not budge in its drought conditions ratings. Thus, 98% of the U.S. cotton production was still experiencing drought, the same as the previous two weeks. Last year, the reading was 38% drought.

Monday afternoon at 4 p.m., USDA will release its weekly Crop Progress report. Last week the 2026 crop was 21% planted versus 19% planted last year.

Tuesday at Noon Eastern, USDA will issue its May WASDE. In this report, the government tabulators will take a stab at forecasting a yield-per-acre number, thus deriving the initial size of the 2026 crop.

This week will see the Trump/Xi trade meeting in Beijing. The two sides have much to discuss including tariffs, Taiwan, Iran, and rare earths.

Chart support for July cotton stands at 83.20 cents and 82.75 cents, with resistance around 85.25 cents and 85.75 cents. Monday morning’s estimated volume is 15,205 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.