Cotton Does About Face Tuesday

The cotton market is markedly lower Tuesday after Monday’s trade saw new life-of-contract gains. Speculators and funds were all in the buying mood Monday as a bit of U.S./Chinese euphoria was in the air. Tuesday, traders will see updated supply-demand tables and then will better focus on this week’s U.S./China talks.

USDA released its weekly Crop Progress report Monday afternoon. The data showed 29% of the U.S. cotton crop was planted as of May 10, up from 21% the previous week and 27% a year ago. The five-year average for this date is 28%. Texas was 27% planted versus a five-year average of 26%, and Georgia was 24% planted versus 25% on average. Arkansas was 40% planted versus a five-year average of 35%, and Mississippi was 47% planted versus 36% on average

Tuesday at noon EDT, USDA will issue its May WASDE. A survey of analysts showed an average trade estimate to be 13.76 million bales, which would be down from last year’s 13.92 million. U.S. exports are expected around 12.27 million bales versus 12.00 million in 2025-26, and ending stocks are expected to be around 4.20 million bales compared to 4.40 million. World production for 2026-27 is expected to be around 119.06 million bales versus 121.87 million seen in 2025-26. Global ending stocks are pegged at 75.63 million versus the previous 77.04 million bales.

This week will see the Trump/Xi trade meeting in Beijing. The two sides have much to discuss including tariffs, Taiwan, Iran, and rare earths.

Crude oil is higher Tuesday after President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran was on “life support.” Tehran’s counter-proposal to end the war included separate talks for nuclear, U.S. reparations, and ownership of the Hormuz.

Chart support for July cotton stands at 85.00 cents and 84.55 cents, with resistance around 88.50 cents and 89.00 cents. Tuesday morning’s estimated volume is 30,935 contracts.

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling (229) 890-7780.