Briefly Below Seasonal Today

General Overview: MULTIPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL GIVE WAY TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY, WITH THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHIFTING SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK.

—

EAST: The Eastern US will be influenced by an active frontal pattern through much of the forecast period. On Tuesday, a low pressure system centered near the Ohio Valley will drive a cold front southwestward and a warm front northeastward, producing widespread rain across a broad swath from the Mid-Atlantic through the Northeast and into New England. Thunderstorm activity will accompany the warm sector across parts of the Mid-South and lower Ohio Valley.

By Wednesday, the low pressure system tracks toward the Northeast coast, with a warm front lifting northward along the Atlantic Seaboard. Rain and thunderstorms will continue to spread across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, while rain persists across the Great Lakes and interior Northeast. 

As the system exits to the northeast by Thursday, a high pressure system building into the central part of the country will push a cold front to the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Rain will continue across much of the Eastern US. By Friday, the cold front pushes offshore, leaving behind a broad area of rain across the Southeast and Gulf Coast, while the Northeast begins to dry out behind the departing system.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Temperatures will run below normal across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic, with anomalies of 6 to locally more than 12 degrees below average in parts of the Deep South. The Northeast will trend near to slightly above normal early, then cool as the cold front passes by Day 3, with above-normal readings of 6 to 12 degrees developing across portions of the mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

-Days 4-6: A broad area of below-normal temperatures settles across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, with anomalies of 6 to 12 degrees below average. The Southeast transitions toward near-normal readings, while the mid-Atlantic and southern New England see a modest warm-up with temperatures running slightly above normal.

-Days 7-10: Below-normal temperatures persist across the Great Lakes region, though the anomalies gradually moderate. Much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic trend toward near-normal readings as the pattern becomes less amplified across the East.

—

CENTRAL: The Central US will see an active weather pattern through much of the week. On Tuesday, multiple areas of low pressure are positioned across the central and southern portions of the region, with a cold front extending from the central Plains southward and a warm front lifting northeastward. Rain and thunderstorms are widespread from the central Plains through the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley.

By Wednesday, a high pressure system builds into the northern Plains, helping to reinforce colder air across the region. Rain and thunderstorms continue across the central and southern Plains, with a broad swath of thunderstorm activity extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. 

Thursday brings a low pressure system developing across the central Plains, with rain and thunderstorms expanding across the South Central region and into the Gulf Coast. The cold air behind the front continues to reinforce below-normal temperatures across the northern and central Plains. By Friday, a new area of low pressure over the central Plains keeps thunderstorm activity ongoing from the South Central region through the lower Mississippi Valley, while rain spreads northward into the Midwest.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal across the central and southern Plains early in the period, with anomalies of 6 to locally 12 degrees above average across portions of the South Central region. The northern Plains will trend below normal by Day 3, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees below average developing across the Dakotas and upper Midwest as cold air pushes southward.

-Days 4-6: A pronounced cold outbreak will grip the central United States, with temperatures running 6 to more than 12 degrees below normal from the central Plains through the Midwest and into the Mississippi Valley. The most extreme anomalies, locally exceeding 12 degrees below average, will be centered over the central Plains and lower Midwest. The South Central region will also trend below normal, with anomalies of 3 to 6 degrees below average.

-Days 7-10: Below-normal temperatures gradually moderate across the central United States, though readings remain somewhat below average across the northern and central Plains. The South Central region trends back toward near-normal values as the cold air mass retreats northward.

—

WEST: The Western US will experience an active pattern driven by multiple disturbances and frontal systems moving through the region. On Tuesday, a low pressure system over the Desert Southwest will contribute to scattered rain and thunderstorm activity across portions of the Southwest, while snow and mixed precipitation are widespread across the Intermountain West, northern Rockies, and into the northern Great Basin. The Pacific Northwest will see rain along the coast with snow possible at higher elevations as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

By Wednesday, a high pressure system builds into the northern Rockies and northern Great Basin, while low pressure consolidates near the Southwest. Mixed precipitation, including snow, continues across the Intermountain West, with accumulating snow possible in the higher terrain of the Rockies and ranges of the Great Basin. Rain and thunderstorms persist near the low pressure center in the Southwest.

Thursday brings a low pressure system into the northern Rockies and northern Plains, with rain and thunderstorms expanding across the adjacent foothills and lower elevations. Snow will continue to be a threat in the higher elevations of the northern Rockies and Cascades, with mixed precipitation possible at lower elevations. The Pacific Northwest will see rain and mountain snow as the next frontal system approaches. By Friday, precipitation activity across the West becomes more limited, though snow remains possible in the higher terrain of the northern Rockies and Cascades, and isolated showers continue across portions of the Pacific Northwest.

Temperature Anomalies:

-Days 1-3: The Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies will see temperatures running well above normal, with anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees above average. The remainder of the West will be near to slightly above normal, with the exception of portions of the Southwest, which will trend slightly below normal.

-Days 4-6: Above-normal temperatures continue to dominate the West, particularly across the Pacific Coast states, the Great Basin, and the Rockies, with anomalies of 6 to locally 12 degrees above average. The Southwest will see a gradual warming trend as well, returning to near or above normal readings.

-Days 7-10: A pronounced and persistent warm anomaly builds across the West, with temperatures running 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal from the Pacific Coast through the Intermountain West and into the Southwest. The warmth becomes most pronounced across California, Nevada, and the Desert Southwest by the end of the period, signaling a significant early-season heat event for the region.

—

TROPICAL: The Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins are currently quiet, with no tropical cyclone activity expected during the next seven days.