Analysis: Crude Stocks Dip on Refining Spike, Products Up

VIENNA (DTN) – U.S. crude oil stocks continued to fall and fuel inventories expanded further as refiners ramped up operations last week, encouraged by relatively high margins. Net crude oil input into refineries rose to a four-month high of 16.99 million bpd in the week ended December 12, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed Wednesday (12/17).

U.S. refiners are maximizing run rates as processing of diesel, particularly, remains profitable despite easing since a rally in the fuel peaked in mid-November. The 3:2:1 diesel crack spread versus WTI currently stands at above $21 bbl, compared to around $16 bbl this time last year. The gasoline crack has, meanwhile, turned negative to around $11 bbl from $12 bbl a year ago, in line with the annual 16% drop in gasoline futures.

U.S. refinery utilization inched up to 94.8% of operable capacity last week, a 3.3% year-on-year increase. Over the past four weeks, utilization averaged 93.9%, compared to 92% in the same period in 2024. Consequently, crude processing rates last week were up 377,000 bpd year-on-year, and up 173,000 bpd on the four-week average. Notably, this came despite a 166,000 bpd year-on-year loss in operable refining capacity.

Amid stagnant demand and cooling exports, the refining push also led to a faster rebuilding pace in fuel inventories than last year. The reported 4.8 million bbl build in gasoline inventories last week brought nationwide stocks to 225.6 million bbl, the highest since August, and up 1.6% year-on-year. On the Gulf Coast, the country’s main refining hub, gasoline stocks are now at their highest since late July.

Distillate fuel oil inventories, which have been lagging year-ago levels for most of 2025, also continued to expand, growing 1.7 million bbl to 118.5 million bbl, and are now 0.3% higher than in the same reference week of last year.

Product exports, which ran hot in autumn, fell back in line with year-ago levels, and demand continued to trail. On the four-week average, gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, averaged 8.65 million bpd, down 1.1% year-on-year, and distillate fuel oil supplied clocked in at 3.68 million bpd, down 2.2% year-on-year.