Above normal Temperatures Will Continue
Temperatures will continue to be above normal across the region. Temperatures will be 5-15 degrees above normal with the warmest across Colorado and New Mexico.
GENERAL OVERVIEW: AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DRIVE WIDESPREAD RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS, AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS. A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL FOCUS PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WHILE PERSISTENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE WEST AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE A BRIEF COOLER INTRUSION AFFECTS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE FORECAST BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE.
EAST:
The forecast period begins with an active weather setup across the eastern United States. A cold front is currently draped from the Great Lakes southward, with an associated low pressure center near the upper Midwest. Rain and thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of the Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley, and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. A separate low pressure center is situated near the Southeast, helping to sustain widespread thunderstorm activity across the Gulf Coast states, the Southeast, and up through the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic coast. Heavy rain and flash flooding are possible across portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic during this first day of the forecast, with rain and thunderstorms also affecting coastal New England.
As the forecast progresses into Tuesday and Wednesday, the cold front pushes eastward and the associated precipitation shield shifts across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Rain and thunderstorms will continue to be widespread across the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and Florida through this period. By Wednesday evening, a broad area of rain and thunderstorms extends from the central Appalachians northeastward through New England, with additional activity continuing across the Southeast and Florida.
By Thursday and into Friday, a cold front pushes through the Great Lakes and Northeast, bringing another round of rain and thunderstorms to those areas. Thunderstorm activity remains persistent across the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and Gulf Coast states. High pressure begins to build into the Southeast by Friday, helping to suppress precipitation in portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas, though thunderstorms continue across the Gulf Coast and Florida.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal across most of the East. A modest below-normal signal is noted across portions of the Tennessee Valley and lower Mississippi Valley on Day 1, while the Northeast sees slightly above-normal readings. Conditions trend closer to near normal by Day 3 across most of the region.
-Days 4-6: Temperatures across the East will be near to slightly above normal. A modest above-normal signal develops across the Northeast and northern New England through this period.
-Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures become more widespread across the Northeast and New England. The remainder of the East is generally near normal through the end of the forecast period.
CENTRAL:
The central United States will see an active start to the forecast period. A low pressure system is positioned over the northern Plains near the South Dakota and Minnesota border, with an associated cold front extending southward through the central Plains. Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Minnesota and the surrounding area on Day 1, and heavy rain and flash flooding are also a concern in that same region. Rain and thunderstorms are widespread across the central Plains, stretching from Nebraska southward through Kansas and into Oklahoma and Arkansas. A separate area of heavy rain and flash flooding is highlighted across portions of the Desert Southwest, including southern Arizona and New Mexico.
By Tuesday and Wednesday, the low pressure system and frontal boundary shift eastward, with rain and thunderstorm activity spreading across the Midwest and into the Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms continue across the southern Plains and western Gulf Coast region. A low pressure center over the central Plains continues to support shower and thunderstorm development across Kansas, Nebraska, and surrounding states. Heavy rain and flash flooding remain a concern across portions of the Southwest into Wednesday.
By Thursday and Friday, high pressure builds across the central Plains, leading to a drier pattern for much of the region. Isolated thunderstorm activity may linger across the southern Plains and western Gulf Coast, but the overall precipitation coverage diminishes.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the central region will be mixed. Above-normal readings are expected across portions of the central and southern Plains on Day 1, while below-normal temperatures develop across the northern Plains and upper Midwest by Day 3, with anomalies running 6 to more than 12 degrees below normal across portions of the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Kansas. The southern Plains remain near to slightly above normal.
-Days 4-6: Below-normal temperatures persist across the northern and central Plains, particularly from the Dakotas southward through Nebraska and Iowa, with anomalies of 6 or more degrees below normal. The southern Plains trend back toward near normal. By Day 6, the below-normal signal weakens and most of the central region returns to near normal.
-Days 7-10: Temperatures across the central region trend above normal, with a broad area of slightly above-normal readings developing from the central Plains eastward through the Midwest by Days 8 through 10.
WEST:
The western United States will see a relatively quiet weather pattern through much of the forecast period. Low pressure systems are present along the California coast and over the Desert Southwest early in the period, supporting isolated shower and thunderstorm activity across portions of Arizona, New Mexico, and the southern Rockies. Heavy rain and flash flooding are possible across portions of southern Arizona and New Mexico on Day 1 and into Day 2. The Pacific Northwest and Great Basin will remain largely dry through the period, with only isolated activity noted.
By mid-period, low pressure along the California coast weakens, and the overall precipitation threat diminishes across the West. Isolated thunderstorm activity may continue across the Desert Southwest and southern Rockies through the remainder of the period, consistent with the typical summer monsoon pattern.
Temperature Anomalies:
-Days 1-3: Temperatures across the West will be above normal across much of California, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico, with some locations running 6 to more than 12 degrees above normal, particularly across the Four Corners region and the Great Basin. In contrast, below-normal temperatures are noted across Oregon, Washington, and Idaho on Day 1, with that below-normal signal expanding to cover much of Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho by Day 3, where anomalies of 6 to more than 12 degrees below normal are expected.
-Days 4-6: The below-normal temperature signal across the northern Rockies and northern Intermountain West diminishes. Above-normal temperatures persist across California, Nevada, Arizona, and the southern Rockies. The Pacific Northwest transitions to above-normal readings by Days 5 and 6, with the above-normal signal becoming more widespread across the West.
-Days 7-10: Above-normal temperatures become the dominant signal across the West, with broadly above-normal readings from the Pacific Coast through the Intermountain West and into the Rockies. Anomalies are generally in the slightly above-normal range, with only isolated pockets of more pronounced warmth.