DTN Soybean Analysis and Recommendations
09/01/2026
Latest Recommendation: On August 31, 2026 — With January 2027 soybeans trading at contract highs and over $13.00, consider selling another 10% of new crop soybeans for delivery after the first of the new year. While I am typically hesitant to recommend sales during this time of year, the sharp rally through August to price levels not seen in the past 2-3 years, combined with overbought conditions I believe justifies action. January 2027 futures are trading near $13.01 at the time of this recommendation.
Daily Note
November soybean futures surged 29 3/4 cents higher on Tuesday, closing at $13.17 3/4. The January board was up 29 1/2 cents to $13.32 3/4. The soybean market jumped considerably on Tuesday, sparked by a cut in U.S. crop ratings with 58% of the crop now rated good or excellent — a three year low for the end of August, and perhaps made more concerning by a hot first half of September on deck for the Midwest. Also supportive was a gap higher in soybean oil futures after EPA soothed trader anxiety by announcing that higher than expected small refinery exemptions (1.7 billion RINs) would be offset by increased blending mandates for 2026 and 2027. The trend in soybean futures is revised to higher for now, keeping in mind that some seasonal pressure may be expected when harvest begins in just a few weeks.
Current Assessment
The trend in soybeans is cautiously revised to higher for now, with futures rallying drastically over the month of August to new 2026 highs. In the August WASDE, USDA forecasted a record U.S. soybean crop in 2026 north of 4.5 billion bushels, driven by 1.4 million added acres and despite a slight cut to national yields. The situation for U.S. stocks relative to demand is currently leaning bullish at 7% forecasted for the upcoming season. The annual DTN Digital Yield Tour forecasted a 52.1 bushel per acre yield, lower than the 52.7 bpa forecasted by USDA in the August WASDE. Looking ahead, August pod filling weather and the dynamics of production potential relative to surging export demand will likely dictate post-harvest price direction – with any reduction in supply or boost to demand likely to put strain on already borderline tight U.S. reserves. For now, soybeans are seen as a bullish, type 2 market.
Marketing Recommendations
*NOTE ON 2025-26 CROP SALES*: In December 2025, USDA offered details for Farmer Bridge Assistance payments, with soybean producers receiving $30.88 per planted acre, or approximately $0.59 per bushel based on the 2025 national average soybean yield of 53 bushels per harvested acre, and 99% national average for harvested area.
Summary:
2025-26: 100% sold on 2025 soybean production at a cash average of $10.17.
2026-27: 60% forward sold on 2026 soybean production at an average hedge price of $11.78 futures.
Detailed Positions:
2025-26:
On May 18, 2026, sold the remaining 15% of 2025 soybean production for June delivery with July 2026 futures near $12.07. The DTN National Soybean Index was likely near $11.42. 100% of the 2025 crop is now sold in cash.
On February 18, 2026, sold another 15% of 2025 soybean production for April delivery with May soybean futures trading near $11.44. 15% of 2025 production remains unsold.
Order placed on October 28, 2025 to sell 10% of 2025 soybean production at $11.10 January futures filled on October 30. Previous order for November 2026 soybeans is still open. 30% of 2025 soybean production remains unsold at this time.
On October 27, 2025, sold 10% of 2025-26 soybean production for December/January delivery with January 2026 futures near $10.81, and the DTN National Soybean Index likely near $9.94 for nearby delivery. 40% of 2025-26 soybean production remains unsold.
On October 20, 2025, sold 15% of 2025-26 soybean production with November soybean futures trading near $10.27 and the DTN National Soybean Index likely near $9.54, for net cash of ~ $9.35 after deduction of previous put protection cost. 50% of 2025-26 production remains unsold.
On August 25, 2025, liquidated half of previous put protection at 3 5/8 cents, locking in a 16 3/8 cent cost for hedge on 25% of 2025 production. Sold 15% of 2025-26 soybean production with November soybeans trading near $10.53, for a net hedge very near to $10.37 futures, and a cash price likely near to $9.70, depending on fills.
On August 5, 2025, purchased $9.80 November 2025 soybean puts, bid at 20 cents per bushel, representing 50% of 2025 soybean production.
On June 23, 2025, sold first 20% of 2025-26 soybean production with November soybean futures trading near $10.55.
2026-27:
On August 31, 2026, sold another 10% of 2026 soybean production for delivery after the first of the new year with January 2027 futures trading near $13.01. 40% of 2026 production remains unsold/unhedged at this point.
On May 18, 2026, sold another 15% of 2026 soybean production for harvest delivery with November 2026 soybean futures near $11.98. This sale leaves 50% of upcoming 2026 production unsold/unhedged at this point.
On March 30, 2026, forward sold another 15% of 2026 soybean production for harvest delivery with November 2026 soybean futures trading near $11.52. 65% of 2026 soybean production remains unsold at this time.
On March 5, 2026, forward sold another 10% of 2026 soybean production for harvest delivery with November 2026 soybean futures near $11.32. The sale leaves 80% of new crop 2026 soybeans unsold/unhedged at this time.
On October 28, 2026, placed an order to sell/hedge 10% of 2026 soybean production if and when November 2026 soybean futures hit $11.10. Filled on November 3.
Historical Recap:
2024-25: 100% sold on 2024 soybean production with an average cash sale of $10.48. DTN’s National Soybean Index averaged $9.65 for the marketing year.
Detailed Sales:
5/24/2024: Purchased $11.00 November 2024 soybean puts covering 100% of production for 18 cents.
5/28/2024: Forward sold 25% of 2024 soybean production with November soybean futures trading near $12.08.
6/18/2024: Sold 25% of the November 2024 soybean puts for 32 cents. Locking in profit of 14 cents to add to previous sale.
7/19/2024: Sold remaining November soybean puts for 71 cents, locking in profit of 53 cents per bushel.
11/11/2024: Sold 50% of 2024 soybean production with the DTN National Soybean Index near $9.67.
1/6/2025: Sold final 25% of 2024 soybean production with the DTN National Soybean Index near $9.43.
2023-24: Average cash sale of roughly $12.45 versus yearly average for the DTN National Soybean Index of $11.56.
2022-23: Average cash sale of roughly $14.48 versus yearly average for the DTN National Soybean Index of $14.14.